Survivor Week 10: 2 Rats and 2 Idols

REVISED: Spreadsheet with remaining players only, conveniently arranged by current alliance, check it out!

Stacy (Ru) and Dreamz (Rappa) both abandoned the two amigos (Alex and Edgardo). My head almost exploded trying to predict the vote.

An insightful strategic overview of the road ahead for everyone besides Earl, Yau-Man, and Cassandra over at Reality News Online.

Flashback: LT selecting Earle with the #1 pick in the draft - a pick that continues ripening.

Survivor Week 9: Twist Victim

Michelle (Rappa) got burnt by a creative game twist that changed the predictable merge pattern of Survivor. In interviews she said "nobody says this game is fair". Our pool is fair ....and competitive. Check up on where you stand here.

The producers avoided the season pivoting "vote at 10"/merge episode with a twist. Traditionally, this episode telegraphs the rest of the season - with 9 people left, usually split 5-4, a systematic pickoff of the minority ensues. By avoiding a group vote at 10 this week, the show has set up a wide open end game.

This could go any way from here on out with the dominant blocs being dyads in stead of tribes:
Rocky-Dreamz
Alex-Edgardo
Yau-Man - Earl

Strategic analysis (not spoilers) says that one of these three dyads will claim 2 of the (presumably) 3 seats before the jury.

Full strategy overview here. (It took me 2 times to understand the probabilities inside.)


In our pool,

• Ru (Stacy/Edgardo) is locked up in the "horseman" alliance
• Ashton (Yau-man/Boo) has potential diversity as Boo remains a wild card
• Mikey (Cassandra, Alex) has outstanding diversity with players in opposite alliances.

Survivor Week 7 & 8: L is for Loser and Lisi

Last week the commissioner went awol (Spring Break in Cancun?)so this updated spreadsheet is for 2 weeks here. With Lisi's elimnation, Tyler is now on permanent spring break. Go Seniors!







Note: Spreadsheet now includes JURY members and their original tribe affiliation. With only 6 or 7 more eliminations before the finale, it is time to start thinking about the end game.



Strategic Overview of Our Pool

• Original Ravu left: 4 (Mookie, Yau-Man, Earle, Michelle)
• Original Moto in "the Click" Left: 4 (Alex, Boo, Stacy, Edgardo)
• Original Moto Outcasts Left: 2 (Dreamz/Cassandra)

Doesnt look good for "the click" in the event of a merge. It is unlikely that Dreamz/Cassandra will stick around with the original Moto. Even if there isnt a merge, Alex/Edgardo were stupid to vote out Lisi as in the case of another Ravu loss, it will be 2 vs. 2 in the vote, and Mookie intentionally told us this week that "the immunity idol is in my pocket".

• Ashton's Boo/Yauman slate serves as the biggest "Odd Couple" of the pool. While both are on Moto, it appears they have never spoken a word to each other. Interesting diversity.

For a more expert opinion, Professor Jeffrey Sadow gives a strategic overview of Lisi's exit and the game at this point, here.

Somehow he gets interviews with the cast the night they are voted off....hmmm, I need to get on the CBS Press Tour list!